6G spectrum urgency: accelerate mid-band policy

Policy choices over the next two years will set the capacity ceiling for 6G-era services through the 2030s.

Urban hotspots will drive 6G capacity needs

Mobile traffic is overwhelmingly urban, concentrated in a small fraction of national land areas and rising fastest in very dense zones. Today’s hotspots already produce the vast majority of usage, and traffic intensity in core business districts dwarfs suburban and rural levels. That is where mid-band spectrum—roughly 1–8 GHz—does the heavy lifting, balancing coverage and capacity for outdoor macro sites and indoor penetration. Without additional mid-band, operators will face growing congestion in the very places where 6G-enabled applications and enterprise digitization will take off first.

Network efficiency alone won’t meet demand

5G Standalone, Massive MIMO, carrier aggregation, and smarter RAN scheduling will keep improving spectral efficiency. Small cells and offload help too. But the GSMA’s new Vision 2040 analysis concludes these levers will not keep pace with demand growth on their own. The outcome is a capacity crunch in urban markets by around 2030 if mid-band allocations remain near today’s levels.

Inside GSMA Vision 2040: demand, timelines, spectrum

The study provides a quantified view of when and how much additional mid-band will be needed to sustain user experience and economic value.

6G rollout timeline and adoption forecast

Commercial 6G launches are expected to begin around 2030, with early activity in China, Japan, South Korea, the US, GCC states, Europe, Vietnam, and India. By 2040, the analysis expects 6G to account for roughly half of all mobile connections globally, with 4G and 5G still serving billions. The message: this will be a multi-generation decade, and capacity must scale across all layers.

Mobile traffic outlook to 2040

Global mobile traffic could reach roughly 1,700 to 3,900 exabytes per month by 2040, depending on adoption and usage intensity—equivalent to about 140–360 GB per connection per month. Growth drivers include continued 5G uptake, a rising cohort of “power users,” and new 6G-era workloads such as extended reality, integrated sensing, and autonomous systems. The usage profile of today’s top decile of users becomes mainstream by the end of the decade.

How much mid-band is needed and when

The modeling indicates countries will need, on average, 2–3 GHz of total mid-band assigned for mobile by 2035–2040 to meet peak urban demand; higher-demand markets trend toward 2.5–4 GHz. Most countries sit near 1 GHz today. Crucially, about 2 GHz needs to be operational by 2030 to avoid early congestion as 6G arrives.

Mid-band options to unlock 6G capacity

Candidate bands exist, but every option involves incumbents, trade-offs, and long lead times for harmonization and device ecosystems.

Target bands: 3.8–4.2, 4.4–4.99, upper 6 GHz, 7–8 GHz

Near- and mid-term additions could come from several ranges. The 3.8–4.2 GHz segment could add roughly 200–400 MHz on top of existing 3.3–3.8 GHz holdings. The 4.4–4.99 GHz range could yield another 400–600 MHz. The upper 6 GHz band (approximately 6.425–7.125 GHz) offers about 700 MHz. Beyond that, 7.125–8.4 GHz could contribute roughly 600–1,275 MHz toward late-2030s requirements. Pairing upper 3.5 GHz extensions with upper 6 GHz is a practical step to meet 2030 needs, with 4.5 GHz and 7–8 GHz augmenting capacity through 2040.

Coexistence with incumbents: 6 GHz, satellite, Wi‑Fi

Every candidate band has existing users—from fixed links and satellite to radio location and Wi‑Fi—so planning must span refarming, relocation, and sharing models. The 6 GHz band is particularly contentious: the US FCC opened the entire band license‑exempt for Wi‑Fi in 2020, while other regions are still weighing split or IMT designations. Expect the International Telecommunication Union’s WRC‑27 to be pivotal for global direction. Regulators must also align on 3GPP band definitions, emissions limits, and cross‑border coordination early to enable chipset, device, and radio roadmaps from vendors like Ericsson, Nokia, and Qualcomm.

Strategic playbook for operators, vendors, and enterprises

The capacity gap is as much a strategy problem as a policy problem, and it demands parallel tracks in technology, investment, and advocacy.

Operators: execute a 2030/2040 dual-track spectrum plan

Secure additional mid-band that can be lit by 2030, prioritizing extensions to the 3.5 GHz layer and upper 6 GHz for rapid carrier aggregation. Upgrade to 5G Standalone cores and enable advanced RAN features to maximize spectral yield. Densify high-traffic corridors with targeted small cells and ensure fiberized backhaul to avoid shifting bottlenecks. Prepare for later 7–8 GHz additions with antenna and site strategies that can scale array sizes and power efficiently. Finally, engage regulators early; auction timing, license terms, and refarming windows will determine whether capacity aligns with demand.

Vendors and device makers: accelerate multi-band ecosystems

Accelerate radio support across the proposed bands with energy-efficient massive MIMO and multi-band AAS designs. Deliver chipsets that aggregate 3.5 GHz with upper 6 GHz and are forward-compatible with 7–8 GHz. Improve uplink performance and indoor propagation through smarter beamforming and repeaters. For CPE and handsets, coexistence between Wi‑Fi 6E/7 and future IMT in 6 GHz must be engineered, not assumed.

Enterprises and public sector: treat mid-band as a competitiveness lever

XR training, machine vision, connected vehicles, and autonomous systems will depend on predictable mid-band capacity. Engage now in national consultations to secure adequate licensed or locally licensed spectrum paths for private 5G. Map your campus and venue strategy across Wi‑Fi 6E/7 and private cellular to avoid stranded investments if 6 GHz policy shifts. Public agencies should align spectrum roadmaps with national digital goals to attract investment and innovation.

What to watch before WRC‑27 on 6 GHz and mid-band

The next 24 months will clarify whether mid-band supply meets 6G demand or urban networks hit a hard ceiling.

Regional stances and harmonization on upper 6 GHz

Track how the US, Europe, China, India, and GCC converge or diverge on upper 6 GHz for IMT versus license‑exempt use. Europe’s stance on splitting 6 GHz will be influential for device scale. Watch proposals to extend 3.5 GHz and open 4.4–4.99 GHz. Harmonized decisions will lower costs and speed deployments.

Market signals: auctions, refarming, trials, 3GPP bands

Monitor auction calendars, refarming announcements, and early 6 GHz and 7–8 GHz trials. Operator commitments to nationwide 5G Standalone coverage by 2030, like those seen in major European markets, are leading indicators for readiness to aggregate new mid-bands. Follow 3GPP band definitions and release timelines that underpin chipset and device availability.

Practical takeaway: build to 2 GHz by 2030, 3+ GHz by 2040

Build toward at least 2 GHz of operational mid-band by 2030 and a path to 3+ GHz by 2040, while continuing densification and efficiency gains. Spectrum is not the only capacity lever, but it is the decisive one for sustaining 6G-grade experiences where demand will be highest.